Monday, 31 May 2010
Xanana Resist Against Indonesia Used Strategic Guerilla Warfare And To Develop The Country with PEDN .mpg
Starting from 19/04/2010 Xanana Gusmao walking through again his old foot print as he began to reorganized the struggle for the Independence from Lospalos in early 1980s trying to fullfill his promised to his people during the strugle that an Independent East Timor will give better live to the Timorese people. But today people are still suffering while many of the government official and a small elite have nice leaving conditions.
In the periode of struggle Xanana has disappeared for more or less two months and appeared with a book called “Strategy Guerrilla War Fare.” In his book amazingly Xanana Set an Avenue to free East Timor from Indonesia occupation by reorganized the resistance to continue the struggle for Independence after most of the leaders were killed, captured or surrender.
After 8 years of Timor Leste have a country but people are still leaving in poor conditions and sometimes starting losing faith to Independence, have lees confidence to their leaders and confuse with the development xanana have self-imposed isolation for three months at his residence in Balibar in the hills overlooking Dili, Kay Rala Xanana Gusmao has now emerged with Timor Leste’s Strategic Development Plan for 2011-2030. It has been given the title “From Conflict to Prosperity,” and consists of an Introduction and 6 (six) sections: Vision of the Timor-Lester economy in 2030; Framework for Action to 2020;Public Investment Plan to 2015;Public Financing; Macroeconomic Framework and Institutional Framework.
He has been traveling around 33 sub-districts in 7 districts’ always have long hours of talk to the people, listened and listed down every questions from every head of the villages. In his speech Xanana always start with the struggle for Independence to cement the spirit of the people, to help regain people trust in the Government, Parliament, Judiciary process and Political party’s leader as well as he called on the people to cease violence and pursue dialogue to develop the country and liberate the people from poverty.
Seems like Xanana is doing civic education program to the people before he started to bring to people attention of the so called National Strategic Development plan (SDP). But it almost certain in every meeting he always bring up the issue of Greater Sun rise as a matter to burden the SDP. He let the people express their anger, dissatisfaction, frustration and then he has explain the people preoccupation and even collectin some notes from the people.
From what we have observe so far PM Xanana has collected a lot of information from each of the villages from the 33 sub districts and the government need to address the people demands for roads, water and sanitations, schools, health centers for short period before move on to start with the SDP itself. Xanana promised to the people that he will fight to decentralize some amount of money for the villages to do some community project. He indicated to start with some US$50,000 for the small project directly involving the community leaders. “Before these community leaders are nothing,” he said in his speech. Timor Leste made up of 442 villages means if each village have access to these small project may cost some US$2,210,000. It may looks like the failed World Bank Community Empowerment Project which occurred in 2000.
Xanana point out a boot which he also signed and said, “Timor first issued a 5 year National Development Plan in 2002.It was widely seen at the time to be the first step in a long process to bring economic prosperity, services and employment to Timor- Leste. Quite an amount of public consultation went into 1st National Development Plan. At the time there was also a lack of suitable qualified Timorese to be the driving force behind the plan. Added to that, we had the crisis of 2006 which did nothing to instill a sense of confidence in either local or foreign business people. However, much has changed in the intervening years. Most, if not all government ministries and agencies have very suitably qualified Timorese women and men who have it well within their capacity to be in control for the monitoring and implementation of Timor-Leste’s Strategic Development Plan (2011-2030).
However some of his Ministers acting as opposition to the PM by not obey his orders. Some others behave like some freedom fighters commands just want to camp near “Bubur Meto’s Pumpkin,” to eat as much as they could while there is opportunity to do so. Many people know there are many allegations of Corruptions, Collusion and Nepotisms involved some of the members of Fourth Constitutional Government lead by PM Gusmao. But none has been brought before the court.
The new Timor-Leste’s Strategic Development Plan (2011-2030) is the brainchild of Prime Minister Kay Rala Xanana Gusmao is a welcome development. The Prime Minister has long recognized that Timor Leste have vast sums of money sitting in trust funds or other funds in the financial houses of New York, while at the same time people in Dili and all the districts are crying out for basic necessities of life. It is very difficult to justify this oil and gas money sitting in theses accounts while so much remains to be done here in the areas of subsistence agriculture, food security, road-air and seaport infrastructure, primary health care, environmental sustainability, the electrification of rural Timor-Leste. One point however is worth noting. Little is said of a hugely lucrative resource for the people of Timor-Leste: fisheries. This resource can not only add much in the area of food security and nutrition and can also be a very large employment generator, if the potential is tapped into locally.
In his executive summary Xanana stated that, “as a young, post conflict and low-income country Timor Leste needs to implement a unique, country-specific strategy to bring prosperity for the people.” He continues, “Timor Leste is a nation that has risen from foreign domination and violent destruction to a dynamic and democratic society, with a rapidly growing, if still fragile, economy.”
According to the ex guerilla commander the future success of the country will defined by four core principles:
1. Political. As a post-conflict, newly independent, and democratic country, Timor Leste has gained the capacity to think strategically and creatively. Now those very same characteristics that brought independence must be utilized and channeled in nation building and economic development.
2. Economic potential. Timor Leste has valuable natural resources, including one of the most vital commodities in the global market, oil and gas. If developed with prudence, the petroleum sector can help to build the foundations of a viable sustainable and vibrant economy.
3. National Integration. Timor Leste is a small country with a land size of 15,000 square kilometers and population of 1.2 million. Because of the small size and population, Timor-Leste is in a favored position to fast track economic development. Connectivity is the key. Rapid development with be promoted by integrating national markets through roads, power and telecommunications, and by connecting Timor-Leste with regional and global markets.
4. Dynamism. As a young population and a new country, Timor-Leste is ready to grasp new opportunities and to accept dynamic change. Our population will master the technologies of the 21st centuries-broadband, Internet advances in agriculture and energy-and will thereby speed economic growth and development.
However, SDP recognizes the many challenges that face Timor –Leste and its people are urban/rural imbalance, the skilled human resources in many areas, Fragile Institutions, Post-conflict mentality. In essence, Xanana wants by the end of 2030 or possibly earlier: to end the rural/urban divide with equality of development for all; Education and skill building for all Timorese citizens; Free compulsory education for every child through Grade 12;Timorese to acquire new technological skills based on broadband, high-yield agriculture and cutting-edge health care delivery;Extreme poverty to be eradicated through job opportunities, access to public services and economic development is all regions.
Xanana's Vision of the Timor-Leste Economy in 2030
Currently Timor-Leste is a low-income economy. It relies heavily of subsistence agriculture and while there is some income-generating cash-crop most people produce for own consumption only. The Strategic Development Plan envisages that there will be rapid change in the Timorese economy by 203o including high quality infrastructure of roads, power, ports and telecommunications. Timor-Leste will be self sufficient in food and will be in a position to be a net exporter of food commodities such as livestock, fruits and vegetables, and other cash crops.
The funds generated from the oil and gas reserves will have turned Timor-Leste into a significant industrial based economy. Light industry such as food processing, apparel, handicrafts and cultural items, printing, furniture making will compliment heavy industries. A significant number of people will be employed in the service (including public) industry including tourism, health, education, trade, entertainment and public administration.
By 2030, Dili will account for nearly one-fourth to one-fifth of the country’s population. Other large towns will also see significant improvements in their economies. The urban centers will be the hub of business activities, key services, such as health and education and transport hubs for trade and tourism. Timor-Leste will be a major tourism and business destination and be seen as a ‘centre of learning’ attracting many students from abroad.
Timor-Leste has magnificent biodiversity and natural environment. Protection of this is a priority under the Strategic Plan with special emphasis on taking measures to counteract the effects of climate change. Precaution against the negative impact of climate change includes fostering large-scale use of irrigation to protect agriculture from fluctuations in rainfall. Other measures to prevent loss of lives and property from floods will also be put in place. The tourism and petroleum sectors will be developed with great detail to the protection of the natural environment.
Timor-Leste will be an upper-middle income country by 2030, with the gap closed with closed with neighbors such as Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. These countries pursued highly successful development plans during the time when Timor-Leste faced occupation destruction and an ongoing struggle for independence. Yet, the chance to narrow this gap through the Strategic Plan by 2030 is clear. Timor-Leste has a young, vibrant and dynamic society; an ability to develop a state-of –the-art infrastructure; and a significant petroleum economy.
The framework of action envisages a mixed economy with complementary actions by the private and public sectors. The vision of 2030 sees a strong public investment program with added investment by the private sector in a diversified economy.
Human capital is inclusive of six pillars: health; nutrition; primary and secondary education; vocational training; higher education; and research and development. A open economy with investor attraction in the areas of petroleum, tourism fisheries, finance, telecommunications and other promising sectors. A public financed primary health care system for all including a nutritional program aimed at breaking the cycle of poverty.
"The construction of school room capacity and teacher training will ensure universal secondary school completion through Grade 12 by the year 2020.This will require the opening of teacher colleges and an intensive effort to expand multi-lingual education in schools in the coming decade. Universal attendance in schools will be mandatory up to grade 9 and schools meals will be provided as part of their learning program."
"Timor-Leste needs an aggressive program to develop job skills. There will be an intensive public education to make good on the skills shortages aimed at today’s young people, particularly in the 20-30 age bracket, who lost the chance for education in the conflict years. Skills training will focus on the vocational skills need ed to build a modern diverse economy, including agriculture, health care, construction ( carpentry, plumbing, electrician) teaching, local public administration, administration and business skills. A strong focus will be culturally related activities such as native music and art."
"Timor-Leste needs to develop its own advanced leadership in public administration, science and business. While many Timorese train abroad, Timor-Leste must develop its own quality and capacity in higher education, beginning with the National University of Timor-Leste."
"The framework includes strong international economic relations focusing particularly with Lusophone countries such as Portugal, Brazil and African countries. Strop cultural and political links throughout the developing and developed world. Sound prudential regulation and step-by-step development of the banking sector."
"Infrastructure investment in roads, power and telecommunications will be a cornerstone of the Strategic Development Plan. The road strategy will be three-pronged: national ( a highway system) district ( paved, all weather roads linking all of the 13 districts of Timor-Leste into a coherent road network, and community (all weather roads that reach local communities)."
“Timor-Leste will develop a modern power grid linking the entire country by 2020. The power grid will connect all districts and will draw on the country’s natural gas resources to power much of the national system. Local electrification may rely on off-grid technologies; solar and wind power, biogas, hydropower and other appropriate options."
"Telecommunications will include a mix of mobile telephony, wireless broadband and fiber optic cable. By 2020, all districts of Timor-Leste, including clinics, hospitals, and secondary schools should have low-cost broadband access. Timor Leste will open the telecommunications sector to strong market competition, which will drive down prices and improve quality and coverage.”
“Seaports and airports constitute another chapter of the Strategic Plan. New seaports will be necessary to upgrade the services in Dili and to develop the full potential of the petroleum sector. Timor -Leste will build a full modern seaport in the south of the country to support the growing petroleum sector. New ports and especially airports will be required to build the new tourism economy. Dili airport will require significant expansion and new airports will be built in the East (Baucau District) and south (Suai District) in order to foster the tourism sector and other growth areas.”
“Major challenges are faced in the area of safe water and sanitation. Rural areas need to be supported with local projects to protect water supplies and provide sanitation facilities. Urban areas also need projects to promote city-wide water and sanitation systems.”
According to Xanana there are at least three strategic sectors for economic growth in the coming two decades. Agriculture, petroleum and tourism. The agricultural sector has been the backbone of the Timorese economy employing up to 85% of the rural population. This is a remarkably promising sector. Timor-Leste is now ripe for a Timor Green Revolution. The government envisages working with local farmers increase the outputs through targeted subsidies and the deployment of seasonal financing, modern technologies and the benefit of cutting-edge research. Timor-Leste can become self-sufficient in rice within five years, and can become an exporter of agricultural products to the world during the coming decade.
Petroleum will have a profound transformative potential for the country. Timor-Leste will build significant upstream and downstream industry, focusing o exploration and development, a pipeline to the mainland, and the development and the development of a downstream industry, including LNG, petrochemicals, fertilizers, refineries, and other energy-intensive operations. Timor-Leste will look at other small petroleum economies, such as Trinidad and Tobago. Before the people Xanana called for unity to fight for the greater sunsire to come to Timor Leste. Xanana is very angry at the Australian Government and Woodside.
The government will promote the national interest through transparent institutions and government led initiatives, including the promotion of government enterprises to foster key investments.
Tourism will be a strategic sector of the economy. Rich in unique flora and fauna, Timor-Leste has enormous potential for eco-tourism. The country is uniquely placed to tap in a region with a booming travel and tourist sector. This will require major investments in infrastructure, important new policies such as those on land and environmental regulation, and various promotional activities including incentives under the national investment law.
Improving the business environment is a fundamental priority.
The Timor Leste’s Strategic Development rule out four interconnected pillars for the economic framework to 2020 such as: Public investment in human capital, infrastructure, and leading sectors. Private investment, in domestic SME, and in FDI in key sectors. Responsible macroeconomic management and economic policies a sound business environment.
The Government sees three types of land reform necessary; farm land now under customary practices; urban land in need of zoning and clear property rights; and government land that can be used for public and private investment such as tourism or petroleum development. There is a need to reform land laws in order to attract capital investment and job creation in Timor-Leste. How ever as happening with the International community funded program of “Hari’i ita rain” has some negative impact of separation of the Timorese family. As it’s happened in a village in Camea, Dili during this week. Those brothers and Sisters have argued among them selves to get right to their parents land.
The government will facilitate the development of domestic financial markets, including commercial bank lending for business activity. For example, one of the goals in the agriculture sector will be to encourage banks to provide seasonal credits for farm inputs, so that farmers have a reliable commercial system to obtain seeds, fertilizer, implements, irrigation systems, and other critical components for farm modernization. The Government will also work to spread microfinance of all kinds, including savings accounts for citizens and micro-lending for small businesses.
Before the thousands of participants in Lautem Sub District, Lospalos Xanana explained to the people that he sat the time frame for four face as 2011-2015, 2016-2020, 2021-2025 and 2026-2030. For the Public Investment Plan to 2015 he said in the executive summary to focus on:
Health and Nutrition: Build a primary health care system at local level by 2015, including one clinic per suco staffed by a doctor and a nurse; one community health worker per 100 households; properly provisioned district hospitals, including ambulances and emergency obstetrical capabilities; national nutritional monitoring and response; national public health data system, with real-time vital statistics; infectious disease control program for HIV/AIDS, TB, Malaria, Dengue, and “neglected tropical diseases” such as worm infections. There will also be large-scale skill training and upgrading programs.
Education and Research: Building a system for universal access and school completion to Grade 9 by 2015, and universal completion through Grade 12 no later than 2025. The SDP will support a massive training of teachers, including the implementation of a national-scale college based on UNTL. The SDP will provide for scholarships for tertiary education, in Timor-Leste and abroad on a strategically targeted basis in key sectors. The Government will open four national research programs at UNTL: agriculture, petroleum, public health, and ecology, and will invite international experts to serve of advisory boards for these centers.
Roads: the national and district road system will be completed no later than 2020, with a substantial proportion completed by 2015. The Government program will pave at least 3,000 km of highway and district roads by 2015, based on strong domestic participation. The complete national road system will be completed by 2020.
Power: the national power grid will be completed by 2015, linking all cities and district capitals. The power system will rely mainly on petroleum, initially heavy liquids and then transitioning to national gas when the gas pipeline reaches Timor-Leste. Alternative energy sources including solar, wind, geothermal and hydro will be incorporated into the national grid. The government will install a 1 GW by 2030.
Seaports and airports: The SDP will prepare for new bulk and LNG port facilities around the petroleum complex in the South, and expand and relocate the container port facilities in Dili. The national airport at Dili will be enlarged, and new international airports will be targeted, at least in the east and one in the south.
Agriculture: The SDP will ensure agriculture inputs for all smallholder subsistence farmers, including fertilizer, seed and agriculture extension. Over time, ythe subsidy program will be convertd into a credit system, in which private and public banks will offer agricultural finance credits to farmers who have demonstrated their credit worthiness.
Petroleum: The SDP will promote the continued growth of the petroleum sector thorough promoting further exploration and development of new blocks. The government will invest in an industrial zone and port facilities in the south, enabling the nation to become an exporter of LNG and other petroleum related products. The government will actively explore the feasibility of various energy-related downstream industries including fertilizers, other petrochemicals, steel and aluminum.
Tourism: The SDP will promote high-end beach and eco-tourism within the bounds of strict environmental standards. Tourism will be promoted through leasing public lands for resort development, improved infrastructure including an airport in the east of Timor-Leste and government promotion of Timor-Leste as a new global tourist destination.
Public Financing to 2015
The basics framework for financing is the following. The government aims for a maximum pace of public investment consistent with : (1) efficiency of resource use;
(2) avoidance of bottlenecks in implementation; (3) full transparency and accountability of outlays, including proper procurement procedures; (4) full monitoring and evaluation; and (5) completion of the investment targets for 2015 and 2020. to accomplish these objectives, the government will pursue: (1) a multi-sector investment policy, with scale-up plans across the major sectors operating in parallel; (2) larger-scale training of personnel in each major sector; (3) institutional innovations to improve oversight and implementation; (4) rigorous data collection, coupled with monitoring and evaluation; (5) frequent consultations with relevant stake holders and experts; and (6) financial prudence.
The Xanana government anticipates a rate of public sector investments during 2011-2015 in the order of 30% of GNP, counting outlays on public health and public education mostly within the investment budget. The rest of the public sector budget would be around 20% of GNP. Total public spending would therefore be in the order of 50% of GNP which would amount to approx. $1 billion per year in the first years of this new decade.
Private sector will add another 15% of GNP each year, perhaps 10% international and 5% domestic. With the total public investments plus the private investments, approx. 50% of GNP, and an incremental-capital-output ration (ICOR) of around 5, the national investments rates would be consistent with GNP growth of around 12% per annum or higher.
Government revenues, including petroleum revenues, will support public spending of around $1 billion per year, with the remainder accumulating in the Petroleum Fund. The Petroleum Fund will rise from $5.5 Billion in 2010 to $9 Billion for the period 2011-2015. The Xanana Government will benchmark the “ 3 per cent rule ” to current outlays and transfers, not consuming or transferring more than the sustainable consumption level equal to 3% of the sum estimated of the Estimated Sustainable Income, (ESI) calculated as the sum of the Fund balances estimated NPV of future Fund revenues from petroleum.
The Xanana government is currently exploring options towards funding strategic public investments including withdrawing in excess of the ESI or borrowing at concessional rates.
The macroeconomic framework is predicted on a rapid expansion of the oil and gas sector, and an investment of oil and gas earnings in human capital, infrastructure and strategic sectors of the economy. The Xanana government government project annual earnings of the petroleum sector growing from $1.6 billion per year in 2010 to more than $2 billion in 2015.
The non-oil economy will increase from $600 per capita to more than $900 by 2015. The petroleum sector, including downstream industry, will increase from around $1,500 to around $3,000 by 2015.
The main points:
1. Timor-Leste will have a very high saving, high investment economy.
2. The Xanana government will supply more than half of the total investments outlays.
3. The total investment rate of around 35% of GNP will enable annual growth in the order of 12% per annum or higher
4. Timor-Leste will continue to run a substantial trade surplus and to accumulate added balances in the Petroleum Fund.
Institutional Framework to succeed the SDP according to Xanana point of view is dependent on, an institutional framework for implementation, a satisfactory global economic and geopolitical environment and massive training at all levels of society.
The most important institutional breakthrough will be a new agency to oversee the design, budgeting, and implementation of the SDP-The Economic Policy and Investment Agency (EPIA).
The EPIA will serve a role similar to a national planning authority, analogous to the National Development and Reform Commission in China, the Economic policy Unit of Malaysia, or the Planning Commission of India. The functional units of the EPIA will include: economic planning; program monitoring and evaluation; procurement and contracting; budgeting; international cooperation; and public information.
The EPIA will streamline the government’s planning and implementation functions, and will be charged with negotiating contracts with domestic and external management teams to implement key functions under the SDP. The EPIA will be responsible for capacity building under the SDP, working in close cooperation with line ministries.
The Xanana government advised by the EPIA will identify key strategic training needs and programs. Each sector program will involve the scale up of local capacity, through targeted training programs at home and abroad. The EPIA will also build its own capacity in economic planning and contact negotiations. The EPIA will provide institutional innovations that will deliver the long-term objectives of the National Strategic Plan.
In the section of framework of action 2020 to build economy xanana though using three prolonged public investment program such as Human Capital, Infrastructure and Sector development. In Human Capital Xanana said Timor Leste needs an aggressive program to develop jobs skills even currently there is considerable unemployment among high-school graduates. How ever there will be skill shortages as government programs and investment expands in health, education, petroleum, agriculture, and other sectors.”
In the Strategic development Plan Xanana remind all stake holders that the successful economic development must based on strong national infrastructure including roads to build high way 3000 km and districts roads, powers gird ready by 2015 and government plan to install 1GW by 2020. The SDP indicated Timor Leste will have three international airport and the Dili airport will be expand, the Baukau airport and one Airport in the sout of the country. Sea ports as SDP outline that new bulk and LNG facilities around the petroleum complex in the south and extended and relocate the Dili port. Timor Leste is aiming to move from smallholder subsistence farmers to credit system through public banks. Timor Leste’s expenditure today mainly out of the Petroleum fund. The plan ruled East Timor would like to be an exporter of LNG and other petroleum related products. And other important sector to be developed is Tourism and urban infrastructure. The plan foresee an annual budget of US$1 billion which accumulating in the petroleum funds. However the governments are looking at ways of funding strategic public investment either to borrowing at the very favorable rate or withdrawing funds in Excess to Estimated Sustainable Income.
Timor Leste Petroleum fund today is US$5.5 billion in the American bank. The SDP calculated between 2011-2015 the petroleum fund would rise to US$9 billion.
The government intent to establish an institution which will in charge of the planning, design, budgeting and implementation of the Strategic Development Plan is namely The Economic Policy and Investment Agency (EPIA). It’s interesting to note that the new EPIA will play similar role as China reform commission, the Malaysian Economic policy Unit and India’s planning commission. This may signaled that Timor Leste a more away from western types economic policies to the new high growth Asian economic and Infrastructures plan.
The emergence of Timor-Leste as an oil an gas producing economy will have significant implication for all sectors of society.